The purpose of this Warm-up is for students to think more deeply about probabilities and what the values actually represent. In this activity, students are asked to compare the likelihood of three events with probabilities given in different formats. In the discussion, students are also asked to think about the context of the situations to see that probabilities are not the only consideration when planning a response.
Give students 2 minutes of quiet work time followed by a whole-class discussion.
Ask students, “Which situation would you worry about the most? Is that the same situation that is the most likely?”
Note that our interpretation of the scenarios influences how we feel about how likely an event is to happen. Although the likelihood of rain is higher, the implications of a tornado are much greater, so we may be more likely to worry about the tornado than the rain.
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The purpose of this Warm-up is for students to think more deeply about probabilities and what the values actually represent. In this activity, students are asked to compare the likelihood of three events with probabilities given in different formats. In the discussion, students are also asked to think about the context of the situations to see that probabilities are not the only consideration when planning a response.
Give students 2 minutes of quiet work time followed by a whole-class discussion.
Ask students, “Which situation would you worry about the most? Is that the same situation that is the most likely?”
Note that our interpretation of the scenarios influences how we feel about how likely an event is to happen. Although the likelihood of rain is higher, the implications of a tornado are much greater, so we may be more likely to worry about the tornado than the rain.